About the Institute
Applied probability, game theory, and quantitative poker modeling
The Applied Probability Institute is dedicated to advancing mathematical literacy in poker. We deconstruct game theory structures, publish peer-reviewed equity algorithms, and provide verifiable open-source calculators so players and analysts can understand poker through pure mathematical probability.
Research Team
PM Game Theory Division
GTO, Nash Equilibrium & Range Analysis Research Team
Division of: Applied Probability Institute
Quantitative research division specializing in Game Theory Optimal (GTO) strategy, Nash Equilibrium solutions, Independent Chip Model (ICM) tournament math, and advanced range morphology.
PM Stochastic & Risk Lab
Pot Odds, Variance & Bankroll Optimization Team
Division of: Applied Probability Institute
Research laboratory focused on Expected Value (EV) calculation, variance and downswing analysis, probability distribution of outs, and Kelly criterion-based bankroll growth models.
Open-Source & Verifiable Methodology
All algorithms are fully documented with closed-form mathematical derivations. No black boxes, no subjective claims — strictly empirical mathematics and game theory optimal (GTO) solutions.
Immediate pot odds derived via discrete combinations, outs mapping, and binomial probability to calculate required break-even equity.
Multi-street decision trees calculate explicit EV of calling, raising, and semi-bluffing, factoring fold equity and implied odds.
1,326 starting hand combinations analyzed against flop/turn board textures. Card removal effects quantified to calibrate unexploitable ranges.
Continuous Kelly criterion models (f* = μ / σ²) define optimal buy-in requirements and downswing risk-of-ruin boundaries.
Applied Probability Institute
Open-Source Code Policy
All code repositories, client-side calculator algorithms, and mathematical derivations developed by PokerMath.org and the Applied Probability Institute are licensed under open standards for research and educational use.
Independence & Quantitative Integrity
We maintain total analytical independence. All calculations run strictly client-side in the user browser to demonstrate mathematical realities, game theory equilibria, and variance management.